Erste Group Bank Lowers Netflix Earnings Forecast for 2026

Analyst cites weaker-than-expected subscriber growth and rising competition as factors behind the downgrade.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 11:05am

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An extreme close-up of various industrial banking components and machinery, conveying the intricate financial infrastructure that supports the streaming industry.As streaming giants like Netflix face increasing competition and rising costs, the complex financial machinery behind their operations comes into focus.Los Gatos Today

Erste Group Bank, an Austrian financial services group, has lowered its earnings estimates for Netflix in 2026. The bank's analyst, H. Engel, now expects Netflix to post earnings per share of $3.14 in fiscal year 2026, down from a previous forecast of $3.15. Erste Group Bank maintains a 'Buy' rating on Netflix stock.

Why it matters

This earnings estimate revision from a major European bank reflects ongoing concerns about Netflix's ability to sustain its rapid subscriber growth in the face of intensifying competition from other streaming services. As the streaming landscape becomes more crowded, Netflix may struggle to retain and attract new customers, putting pressure on its financial performance.

The details

Erste Group Bank cited weaker-than-expected subscriber growth and rising competition as the key factors behind the downgraded earnings forecast for Netflix. The bank's previous 2026 EPS estimate for Netflix was $3.15, but it has now been lowered to $3.14. Erste Group Bank currently has a 'Buy' rating on Netflix stock.

  • Erste Group Bank issued the revised earnings estimates on Thursday, April 2, 2026.

The players

Erste Group Bank

An Austrian financial services group that provides banking, investment, and insurance products.

H. Engel

An analyst at Erste Group Bank who covers Netflix.

Netflix, Inc.

A global entertainment company that provides subscription-based streaming of films, television series, documentaries, and other video content.

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What they’re saying

“Erste Group Bank currently has a 'Buy' rating on the stock.”

— H. Engel, Analyst

What’s next

Investors will be closely watching Netflix's upcoming quarterly earnings reports and subscriber growth figures to gauge the company's performance and outlook.

The takeaway

This earnings estimate revision highlights the increasing competitive pressures facing Netflix as the streaming market becomes more crowded. The company will need to continue innovating and investing in high-quality content to maintain its subscriber base and financial performance.