Controversial Poll Shows Raman Ahead of Bass in LA Mayor's Race

City Councilmember Nithya Raman leads incumbent Karen Bass in a new Loyola Marymount University poll, though experts caution the results may not reflect the full picture.

Mar. 31, 2026 at 12:34am

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A dimly lit, cinematic painting of an empty political debate stage, with a lone podium bathed in warm, golden light and surrounded by deep shadows, conveying a sense of quiet contemplation and the high stakes of the mayoral contest.As the LA mayoral race heats up, a new poll shows a progressive challenger surging, exposing deep divides within the city's Democratic establishment.Los Angeles Today

A new poll by the Loyola Marymount University Center for the Study of Los Angeles shows City Councilmember Nithya Raman leading incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the race for Los Angeles mayor, with Raman at 33% and Bass at 17%. However, the poll's director cautioned that it did not give the whole picture, and other recent polls have shown Bass in the lead.

Why it matters

The LA mayor's race is a high-profile contest that will shape the direction of the city. The Loyola Marymount poll's findings, if accurate, would represent a significant shift from previous surveys and could signal a surge of support for the progressive Raman. However, experts have raised concerns about the poll's methodology, suggesting the results may not fully reflect the electorate.

The details

The Loyola Marymount poll of 370 registered Los Angeles voters, conducted from February 11 to March 16, showed Raman with a commanding lead, while Bass trailed at 17%. Other candidates, including leftist Rae Huang, tech executive Adam Miller, and conservative reality TV star Spencer Pratt, also received support. Unlike other recent polls, the Loyola Marymount survey provided brief descriptions of the candidates, which may have influenced the results. The poll's director, Fernando Guerra, said he believes Bass is still the front-runner based on previous surveys.

  • The Loyola Marymount poll was conducted from February 11 to March 16, 2026.
  • The June 2, 2026 primary election is about two months away.

The players

Nithya Raman

A progressive LA City Councilmember focused on housing affordability, homelessness, and systemic reform.

Karen Bass

The incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, a veteran legislator focused on homelessness.

Fernando Guerra

The director of the Loyola Marymount University Center for the Study of Los Angeles, who directed the poll.

Paul Mitchell

The vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data Inc.

Mike Trujillo

A consultant for moderate Democrats who is not representing anyone in the mayoral race.

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What they’re saying

“This poll shows if only positive descriptors are used and context is provided, Raman is ahead.”

— Fernando Guerra, Director, Loyola Marymount University Center for the Study of Los Angeles

“In 2022, this same LMU poll had Karen Bass at 16% — she ended up winning the primary with 43%. The only thing more ridiculous than this poll is Spencer Pratt's performance on The Hills.”

— Alex Stack, Spokesperson, Karen Bass campaign

“I'm sure Nithya Raman doesn't have citywide name recognition, but that description is really great.”

— Paul Mitchell, Vice President, Political Data Inc.

“Los Angeles is much more progressive than its elected leadership. This poll captures that.”

— Fernando Guerra, Director, Loyola Marymount University Center for the Study of Los Angeles

“If you believe this poll, I have bridges to sell you on 1st Street, 6th Street, and Alameda Street — and there's no bridge on Alameda. The poll was basically A to Z in Nithya Raman's contact list.”

— Mike Trujillo, Consultant for moderate Democrats

What’s next

The June 2, 2026 primary election is about two months away, and the results of this poll could influence the campaign dynamics and voter perceptions leading up to the vote.

The takeaway

This controversial poll highlights the deep divisions and competing visions within the Democratic party in Los Angeles, with progressives like Raman challenging the establishment represented by Bass. The race will be closely watched as a bellwether for the direction of the city's politics.