Major US Airlines Warn of Potential Collapse Amid Soaring Fuel Prices

Industry leaders say some carriers may not survive if oil prices remain high due to the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Mar. 29, 2026 at 9:42am

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Some of the largest US airlines are sounding the alarm about the potential collapse of major carriers if oil prices continue to surge due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that if oil prices stay at current levels, which have more than doubled in the last three weeks, it could mean an extra $11 billion in annual fuel expenses for the industry - more than double United's best-ever annual profit. Kirby cautioned that 'if the forecast about $175 per barrel is right, you'll see airlines not survive' if they make the same mistakes as during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Why it matters

The airline industry is a critical part of the US economy, supporting millions of jobs and enabling business and leisure travel. A collapse of major carriers would have widespread ripple effects across the country. High fuel prices have historically been one of the biggest threats to airline profitability and stability, and the current geopolitical tensions driving up oil prices pose an existential threat to some airlines if the situation persists.

The details

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has driven up global oil prices, with the price of a barrel of crude oil reaching over $175 according to industry forecasts. This has translated to a more than doubling of jet fuel prices in just the last three weeks, adding significantly to the operating costs of airlines. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that if these high fuel prices persist, it could mean an extra $11 billion in annual expenses for the industry - far exceeding the best-ever annual profits of major carriers like United.

  • Oil prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks.
  • Industry forecasts predict oil could reach $175 per barrel.

The players

Scott Kirby

The CEO of United Airlines, who has warned that some major US airlines may not survive if oil prices remain at current elevated levels.

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What they’re saying

“If these other guys make the same mistakes they made six years ago (during the Covid-19 pandemic), and if the forecast about $175 per barrel is right, you'll see airlines not survive.”

— Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines

What’s next

Industry analysts will be closely watching oil price movements and airline financial results in the coming months to see if Kirby's warnings about potential airline collapses come to fruition.

The takeaway

The airline industry is facing an existential threat from skyrocketing fuel costs driven by geopolitical tensions, with some major carriers warning they may not be able to survive if oil prices remain at these elevated levels. This highlights the industry's vulnerability to external shocks and the need for airlines to build greater financial resilience.