Russia Could Profit from Iran War Helium Supply Chain Disruption

Helium shortage from Iran conflict could boost Russian helium exports to China

Mar. 27, 2026 at 12:04pm

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The ongoing military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted global helium supplies, with Qatar - a major producer - seeing its export capacity hampered by Iranian strikes. This has created a supply gap that could benefit Russia, the third-largest helium supplier, as it expands exports to China to fill the void left by reduced Qatari shipments.

Why it matters

Helium is a crucial material for semiconductor manufacturing, and the supply crunch threatens to disrupt chip production globally. While North American producers may benefit, Russia could also gain a larger share of the Chinese market, potentially undercutting Western chipmakers' access to the gas.

The details

Qatar previously provided over 30% of the global helium market, but its production has been hampered by the U.S.-Iran conflict. This has shifted the market from oversupply to undersupply, causing prices to surge. While North American producers are expected to ramp up, Russia - which has ample helium reserves - could also expand exports to China, which relied on Qatar for 54% of its helium supply in 2025. However, Russian helium may not be a preferred solution for Western chipmakers due to trade restrictions.

  • In 2025, Qatar provided over 30% of the global helium market.
  • In March 2026, Deutsche Bank analysts reported that the shutdown of Qatar's helium production due to the U.S.-Iran conflict had removed roughly a third of global helium supply.
  • In 2025, Russia-to-China helium exports rose 60% year-on-year, according to the Center on Global Energy Policy.

The players

Qatar

The world's second-largest helium supplier, which owns part of the world's largest gas field and provided over 30% of the global helium market in 2025.

Russia

The third-largest helium supplier, which has ample helium reserves and has been increasing production to take advantage of the supply disruption caused by the Iran conflict.

China

The world's largest producer of mature-node chips, which relied on Qatar for 54% of its helium supply in 2025 and has been increasingly turning to Russia to fill the gap.

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What they’re saying

“The shutdown of Qatar helium production due to the US-Iran military conflict has removed roughly a third of global helium supply and shifted the market from oversupplied to undersupplied.”

— Deutsche Bank analysts

“If Qatari disruptions persist, Russia is well placed to further expand its role in China's helium supply mix.”

— Erica Downs, Research scholar

The takeaway

The helium supply crunch caused by the Iran conflict highlights the geopolitical risks and interdependencies in the global semiconductor supply chain. While North American producers may benefit, Russia's ability to expand exports to China could undercut Western chipmakers' access to this crucial material, underscoring the need for diversified and resilient supply sources.