California Report Warns Mono Lake Needs Less LA Water to Survive

Iconic saltwater lake faces uncertain future due to climate change and water diversions

Mar. 17, 2026 at 11:20pm

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A new state-commissioned report finds that Mono Lake in California's Eastern Sierra has only a 1 in 3 chance of reaching its target water level by mid-century if current water exports to Los Angeles continue. The report suggests that halting water exports would significantly increase the likelihood of the lake reaching its target, but climate change could still lower lake levels by up to 6.5 feet by the end of the century.

Why it matters

Mono Lake is a unique and iconic natural wonder, known for its tufa towers and alkali shores. It supports a diverse ecosystem, including migratory birds. The lake's declining water levels due to climate change and water diversions to Los Angeles threaten this fragile environment. Addressing the lake's plight is crucial for preserving California's natural heritage.

The details

The report, based on modeling by researchers at UCLA, was presented to the State Water Resources Control Board. It found that even if Los Angeles halts all water pumping from the Mono Lake basin, climate change could still lower lake levels by up to 6.5 feet by 2100 due to increased evaporation. Los Angeles officials dispute the report's findings, arguing their water draws are a small fraction of the basin's total supply.

  • In 2022, during a severe drought, Mono Lake dropped more than 12 feet below its target level.
  • The State Water Resources Control Board has expressed interest in revisiting water policy at Mono Lake, acknowledging that landmark guidelines established there three decades ago to curb water exports by Los Angeles aren't working.

The players

Mono Lake

A saltwater lake in California's Eastern Sierra known for its tufa towers and alkali shores.

Los Angeles Department of Water and Power

The agency that pumps water 350 miles from streams feeding Mono Lake to supply a portion of Los Angeles' water needs.

State Water Resources Control Board

The California regulatory agency that sets limits on how much water the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power can take from the streams feeding Mono Lake.

Alex Hall

The lead author of the new report and professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UCLA.

Geoff McQuilkin

The executive director of the Mono Lake Committee, which advocates for the lake's restoration.

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What they’re saying

“With adjustments to exports, especially carefully chosen adjustments, you can get recovery outcomes that are almost as good as no exports at all.”

— Alex Hall, Lead author of the report, professor at UCLA

“We've tried one plan for 30 years and it hasn't gotten the lake there. Let's try another plan. This (UCLA report) should give the water board some confidence that if they move ahead with decreasing diversions they can be impactful in reaching the 6,391-level required.”

— Geoff McQuilkin, Executive director, Mono Lake Committee

What’s next

The State Water Resources Control Board noted the possibility of restricting more water from Los Angeles in the future, but did not say whether or when they would move ahead with such a politically fraught prospect.

The takeaway

Saving Mono Lake will require difficult decisions about reducing water diversions to Los Angeles, even as climate change threatens to further deplete the iconic saltwater lake. Balancing the needs of the environment and the city's water supply will be a complex challenge for California regulators.