Iran Lacks Capability for Direct Attack on California, Experts Say

U.S. officials warn of potential threats, but long-range missile and other attack capabilities remain limited

Mar. 12, 2026 at 3:38pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Despite warnings from U.S. officials about potential Iranian retaliation, experts say Iran currently lacks the capability to directly attack targets in California or the U.S. mainland. While Iran has a large and diverse missile arsenal, it has not yet developed the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology required to strike the West Coast from Iran. Other potential attack methods, such as drone strikes from ships or sleeper cell operations, also appear unlikely to materialize based on current assessments.

Why it matters

The warnings about potential Iranian attacks on the U.S. have raised concerns among Californians and prompted increased security measures. However, security experts say the actual threat appears to be limited, as Iran's military capabilities remain constrained. Understanding the realistic capabilities and limitations of Iran's forces is important for maintaining appropriate preparedness without unnecessary panic.

The details

U.S. officials have warned that Iran considered launching unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from ships off the U.S. coast, but Iran's naval forces have been severely degraded by American strikes. Iran also lacks the ICBM technology needed for a long-range missile attack on California. While the possibility of sleeper cell or cyberattack threats remains, authorities say there is no evidence of an imminent plot. Security experts say Iran's ability to directly strike the U.S. mainland appears limited for now.

  • In early February 2026, the FBI warned California authorities about Iran's alleged plans for an attack.
  • On February 28, 2026, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security assessed that a large-scale physical attack by Iran is "unlikely" but that "targeted attacks" remain a "persistent threat."

The players

Gavin Newsom

The Governor of California who stated there is "no imminent threat" from Iran.

Donald Trump

The former U.S. President who claimed Iran was developing long-range missile capabilities to reach the "American homeland."

Pete Hegseth

The U.S. Defense Secretary who declared Iran's navy "combat ineffective, decimated, destroyed, defeated."

Can Kasapoğlu

A defense strategy fellow at the Hudson Institute who has warned about the threat of drones or missiles launched from civilian or disguised vessels.

Horace Frank

The former head of counterterrorism at the Los Angeles Police Department who said "sleeper cells have always been a concern" when it comes to Iran and its proxies.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee

The takeaway

While U.S. officials have warned about potential Iranian threats, security experts say Iran currently lacks the advanced military capabilities needed to directly attack California or the U.S. mainland. Understanding the limitations of Iran's forces is important for maintaining appropriate preparedness without undue alarm.