Trump Promised to Avoid Regime Change Wars, But Now Leads One Against Iran

The president who campaigned on avoiding foreign conflicts is now following the same playbook that has led to costly regime change disasters in the past.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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Despite promising to tear up the playbook that previous administrations repeatedly used to launch regime-change wars in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump is now writing its latest chapter with the ongoing conflict against Iran. The pattern of exaggerating threats, inflating benefits, prematurely declaring victory, and facing unintended consequences is playing out once again.

Why it matters

Trump's approach to the Iran conflict mirrors past failed regime change efforts, raising concerns that the U.S. is repeating the same mistakes that have led to costly political and strategic disasters in the region. The consequences of this war could include higher oil prices, terrorist attacks, instability in Iraq, and the rise of a repressive regime in Tehran.

The details

The Trump administration has exaggerated the threat from Iran, making unsubstantiated claims about imminent attacks and Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities. They have also inflated the likely benefits of military action, suggesting it will free the Iranian people, eliminate Iran's regional threat, and lower oil prices - despite a history of such promises going unfulfilled. As the war's costs rise, the administration has shifted its justifications, with officials making increasingly exaggerated assertions. Meanwhile, the unintended consequences are already emerging, including a spike in oil prices and the stranding of U.S. citizens in the region.

  • On February 28, Trump announced the start of the war against Iran.
  • In early March, administration officials made a series of dubious claims about Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities.
  • On March 9, Trump declared the war was already 'very complete, pretty much,' hinting at a premature declaration of victory.

The players

Donald Trump

The U.S. president who campaigned on avoiding foreign conflicts but is now leading a regime change war against Iran.

Marco Rubio

The U.S. Secretary of State who has made exaggerated claims about the threat from Iran to justify military action.

Steve Witkoff

The U.S. special envoy who has asserted Iran was close to obtaining bomb-making material, contradicting intelligence assessments.

Anna Kelly

The White House spokesperson who claimed Iran was stockpiling near-weapons grade uranium, an unsubstantiated assertion.

Jarrod Agen

The White House senior advisor who downplayed the risk of higher oil prices resulting from the conflict with Iran.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.