Oscars 2026: Chalamet and Jordan Locked in Tight Best Actor Race

Timothée Chalamet could become one of the youngest Best Actor winners if he wins on Sunday.

Mar. 9, 2026 at 7:06pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The race for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards has become one of the most unpredictable contests in recent Oscar history. While awards season often settles into a clear frontrunner by early March, this year's Best Actor category remains volatile, with predictive markets shifting rapidly and major precursor awards split among contenders. Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan are the front-runners to win the award for Best Actor, and if Chalamet wins, he will become one of the youngest Best Actor winners in history.

Why it matters

Unlike past years dominated by a single front-runner, split victories across major award bodies have left the Best Actor category unusually unsettled heading into the March 15 ceremony. This unpredictability has generated significant interest and speculation around who will ultimately take home the Oscar.

The details

On Polymarket, Chalamet and Jordan are trading nearly neck‑and‑neck, each hovering within 10 points of each other, with the balance of probability spread thinly among the remaining nominees. Chalamet's odds surged earlier in awards season following wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards for Marty Supreme, but Jordan's momentum increased dramatically after his Best Actor win at the SAG‑AFTRA Actor Awards for Sinners. On Kalshi, Jordan has better probability at winning, at 50 percent, to Chalamet's 40 percent. DiCaprio is a distant third at 6 percent.

  • The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15, 2026.
  • Chalamet received his first Best Actor nomination for Call Me by Your Name in 2018, becoming one of the youngest nominees in the category's history.

The players

Timothée Chalamet

An acclaimed actor who has received three Best Actor nominations, including for his performance in Marty Supreme.

Michael B. Jordan

An actor who is a front-runner to win the Best Actor Oscar for his performance in Sinners.

Leonardo DiCaprio

A veteran actor who is a long shot to win the Best Actor Oscar this year.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This year's Best Actor race at the Oscars is unusually unpredictable, with no clear frontrunner emerging and the outcome remaining uncertain heading into the ceremony. The potential for a historic win by the young Timothée Chalamet has added to the intrigue surrounding this category.