Bombing Iran Won't Bring Freedom

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When the author saw images of bombs falling on Tehran, he felt a recognition that was almost immediate. He has lived inside this story for most of his life, first as a child in Iran, then as an immigrant to the United States, and later as someone trying to explain his country to Americans who often encounter it only in moments of crisis. The author argues that the most likely outcome of the American-Israeli bombing campaign is not the advent of liberal democracy but rather a shift in the regime's center of gravity from clerical dominance to military dominance, where one tyranny replaces another. He believes that durable change in Iran will most likely emerge from the slow accumulation of pressure inside the country, not from the sudden imposition of force from outside.

Why it matters

This case highlights the complex history of American intervention in Iran and the risks of relying on outside military force to bring about democratic change. The author's personal experience as an Iranian American provides a nuanced perspective on the challenges of supporting the Iranian people's aspirations for freedom without feeding the regime's narrative of foreign meddling.

The details

The author recounts his childhood memories of President Jimmy Carter's visit to Iran in 1977, when he felt the hope that the American president might act as a check on the shah's regime. However, that hope dissolved into something harder and more sober as the revolution unfolded and the storming of the U.S. Embassy led to decades of mutual suspicion between the two countries. The author argues that the current bombing campaign is more likely to strengthen the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a military-intelligence and economic network woven deeply into Iran's institutions, rather than dissolve it. He warns that this could lead to a shift in the regime's center of gravity from clerical dominance to military dominance, where one tyranny replaces another.

• In 1977, the author was five years old and witnessed President Jimmy Carter's visit to Tehran.
• In 1979, the author's family fled Iran with little warning and arrived in America with almost nothing.
• In 2022, the author was on a book tour for a biography of an American who died fighting for Iranian democracy more than a century ago, during the women-led uprising in Iran.

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