Oscars Race Tightens After Surprise Wins at Actor Awards

AP Film Writers Predict Tight Competition for Top Prizes at 98th Academy Awards

Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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The Oscar race has tightened after surprise wins at the Actor Awards, and Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle say the top prizes now look less settled. The broadcast of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, may have more drama and heartbreak than expected even just last week, as members of the film academy fill out their ballots before Thursday's 8 p.m. Eastern deadline.

Why it matters

The Oscars are the most prestigious awards in the film industry, and the outcome of the top categories can have a significant impact on the careers and recognition of the nominees. The tightening of the race adds an element of unpredictability and excitement to the proceedings, as the traditional front-runners face unexpected challenges.

The details

With a few late-game curveballs, courtesy of the Actor Awards, the Oscars broadcast may have more drama and heartbreak than expected. The Best Picture race, in particular, has become more uncertain, with 'Sinners' pulling off surprise wins at the Actor Awards, potentially threatening the dominance of the presumed front-runner, 'One Battle After Another'. The acting categories also feature tight competitions, with Michael B. Jordan's win at the Actor Awards potentially shaking up the Best Actor race.

  • The 98th Academy Awards will be broadcast on Sunday, March 15, 2026.
  • The deadline for members of the film academy to fill out their ballots is Thursday, March 13, 2026, at 8 p.m. Eastern.

The players

Lindsey Bahr

An Associated Press film writer who is making predictions for the top Oscar categories.

Jake Coyle

An Associated Press film writer who is making predictions for the top Oscar categories.

'One Battle After Another'

A film that was previously considered the front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar, having won top prizes at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, BAFTAs, and the Golden Globes.

'Sinners'

A film that pulled off surprise wins at the Actor Awards, potentially threatening the dominance of 'One Battle After Another' in the Best Picture race.

Michael B. Jordan

An actor who won at the Actor Awards, potentially shaking up the Best Actor race.

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What they’re saying

“The Oscar race has tightened after surprise wins at the Actor Awards, and the broadcast of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, may have more drama and heartbreak than expected even just last week.”

— Lindsey Bahr, Associated Press film writer (kob.com)

“Suddenly, the Oscars don't seem so buttoned up after all.”

— Lindsey Bahr, Associated Press film writer (kob.com)

“The breakthrough for 'Sinners' came at just the right time, when Oscar voters were sending in their ballots. So I think 'Sinners' has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset.”

— Jake Coyle, Associated Press film writer (kob.com)

What’s next

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, where the winners of the top categories will be announced.

The takeaway

The tightening of the Oscar race adds an element of unpredictability and excitement to the proceedings, as the traditional front-runners face unexpected challenges. This year's Oscars broadcast may feature more drama and surprises than anticipated, keeping audiences engaged and invested in the outcome.