Nightmare Scenario Looms for California Democrats

Democrats could beat themselves with a crowded gubernatorial primary field.

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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The race for California governor is extremely close, with the top two vote-getters in the June primary, regardless of party, advancing to the November election. While a Democrat and Republican finishing in the top two spots is the most likely outcome, there is an 18% chance that both finalists could be Republicans, a nightmare scenario for California Democrats.

Why it matters

This potential all-Republican gubernatorial final would be the first time in 20 years that a Republican is elected California's governor, in a state that has been solidly Democratic in recent decades. It highlights the risk of Democrats splitting their vote in a crowded primary field, allowing Republican candidates to potentially advance.

The details

The latest independent poll shows the top five candidates are in a statistical tie, with three Democrats and two Republicans all within 4 percentage points of each other. The breakdown is: Republican Steve Hilton (14%), Democrat Katie Porter (13%), Republican Chad Bianco (12%), Democrat Eric Swalwell (11%), and Democrat Tom Steyer (10%). The remaining five Democratic candidates are polling much lower. Political data analyst Paul Mitchell calculated an 18% chance of an all-Republican gubernatorial final based on this polling.

  • The deadline for candidates to file their official candidacy papers is this Friday.

The players

Steve Hilton

A Republican former Fox News commentator.

Katie Porter

A Democratic former U.S. Representative.

Chad Bianco

A Republican Riverside County Sheriff.

Eric Swalwell

A Democratic U.S. Representative.

Tom Steyer

A Democratic hedge fund founder.

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What they’re saying

“It's hard to come up with the math that makes that work.”

— Mark Baldassare, Polling director, Public Policy Institute of California (pressdemocrat.com)

“There are very few people who are voting outside their party.”

— Mark Baldassare, Polling director, Public Policy Institute of California (pressdemocrat.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.