Sierra Nevada Snowpack at 68% of Normal After Whiplash Winter

Water supplies remain stable, but experts warn of increased fire risk due to low snowpack

Published on Feb. 26, 2026

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California's Sierra Nevada snowpack, which provides nearly one-third of the state's water supply, is currently at 68% of its historical average after a winter of extreme weather swings. While reservoirs across the state remain above average, experts caution that the low snowpack could lead to an earlier and more severe wildfire season.

Why it matters

The Sierra Nevada snowpack is a critical water source for California, and fluctuations in snowpack levels can have major impacts on water supplies and wildfire risk. This year's 'weather whiplash' of dry spells and intense snowstorms highlights the challenges posed by climate change, which is linked to more extreme weather patterns.

The details

After a dry start to the winter, heavy snowfall around Christmas brought totals up to historic averages. However, five weeks of warm, dry weather followed, and recent blizzards have only brought the snowpack to 68% of normal. With at least two more weeks of dry weather forecast, experts say the chances of reaching 100% of normal by the typical April 1 end of the snow season are low.

  • The winter began very dry, with Lake Tahoe ski resorts unable to open for their usual Thanksgiving kickoff.
  • Around Christmas, 10 feet of snow fell, saving ski season and bringing totals up to historic averages.
  • In mid-February, blizzards dumped another 9 feet of snow in five days.
  • As of February 26, 2026, the Sierra snowpack stood at 68% of its historical average and falling.
  • At least two more weeks of dry weather are forecast.

The players

Andrew Schwartz

The lead scientist at UC Berkeley's Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit.

Jeff Mount

A professor emeritus at UC Davis and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California Water Center in San Francisco.

Daniel Swain

A climate scientist with the University of California's California Institute for Water Resources.

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What they’re saying

“It's a weather-whiplash scenario. We are going from warm and dry to really intense snow storms, and right back to dry within a few days. It's been chaotic.”

— Andrew Schwartz, Lead Scientist, UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab (eastbaytimes.com)

“The good news is that our reservoirs are in good shape. That's our buffer. It is unlikely we will be seeing water restrictions this summer.”

— Jeff Mount, Professor Emeritus, UC Davis (eastbaytimes.com)

“Snowpack is so critical to maintaining soil moisture. Without it everything dries out earlier. Low snowpack is a proxy for an earlier and longer and possibly tougher fire season.”

— Jeff Mount, Professor Emeritus, UC Davis (eastbaytimes.com)

What’s next

Experts will continue to monitor the Sierra Nevada snowpack levels in the coming weeks to assess the potential impacts on water supplies and wildfire risk for the upcoming summer.

The takeaway

This year's 'weather whiplash' in California's Sierra Nevada highlights the challenges posed by climate change, with more extreme swings between dry and wet conditions. While water supplies remain stable for now, the low snowpack levels raise concerns about an earlier and more severe wildfire season.