Canada Aims to Boost LNG Output, But at What Cost?

British Columbia's climate plan could shrink the provincial economy by $28 billion, raising concerns about the trade-offs of ambitious emissions targets.

Published on Feb. 25, 2026

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The Canadian government has set ambitious targets for increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, aiming to reach 50 million tonnes per year by 2030. However, the province of British Columbia's climate plan, known as CleanBC, is projected to shrink the provincial economy by $28 billion, raising questions about the economic trade-offs of pursuing aggressive emissions reductions. The article examines the parallels between British Columbia and California's approach to climate policy, highlighting how the pursuit of ambitious targets has led to unintended consequences, such as refinery closures and increased reliance on imported fuels.

Why it matters

This story highlights the tension between climate ambition and economic realities, particularly in resource-rich regions like British Columbia and California. The significant economic costs of climate policies raise concerns about the feasibility and sustainability of such ambitious targets, and whether the trade-offs are being adequately considered. The article also explores how the pursuit of climate leadership can lead to unintended consequences, such as increased reliance on imported fuels, which may undermine the original environmental goals.

The details

The article delves into the details of British Columbia's CleanBC plan, which the government's own modeling shows would shrink the provincial economy by $28 billion. This economic damage is more than 2.5 times the impact of Donald Trump's trade tariffs on the province. The plan has contributed to sluggish economic growth, ballooning deficits, and rising provincial debt. Meanwhile, California is facing a fuel supply crisis, with refinery closures and increased reliance on imported fuels, including from countries with weaker environmental and human rights standards.

  • In 2024, Trans Mountain pipeline expansion came online, nearly tripling capacity to 890,000 barrels per day and increasing western Canada's tidewater export capacity by roughly 700%.
  • In November 2025, Trans Mountain waterborne exports hit an all-time record, with the pipeline system operating at effectively full capacity.

The players

Mark Carney

The Prime Minister of Canada, who stated that by 2030, Canada will produce 50 million tonnes of LNG each year, all of which will be destined for Asian markets.

Tim Hodgson

The Energy and Natural Resources Minister of Canada, who declared that Canada could be one of the world's largest LNG exporters.

David Eby

The Premier of British Columbia, who has had to pivot to cutting 2,000 public service jobs and talking about 'transitioning into the new economy' due to the fiscal challenges posed by CleanBC.

Brenda Bailey

The Finance Minister of British Columbia, who delivered the fiscal catastrophe of CleanBC under the cover of Trump's tariff threats.

Tides Foundation

A San Francisco-based foundation that has poured tens of millions into anti-pipeline campaigns in British Columbia, funding legal challenges, protest infrastructure, and communications strategies to try to prevent the construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, Grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.