Western U.S. Faces 'Major Pattern Change' With Increased Weather Risks

Forecasters warn of heavy precipitation, snow, and high winds across the region in mid-February

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has warned that the western United States is facing a 'major pattern change' this month, with an increased risk of hazardous weather including heavy precipitation, snow, and high winds across the region from February 17-23. The CPC has highlighted a high risk for heavy rainfall that could trigger flooding in coastal California, as well as the potential for heavy snow in higher elevations and an elevated wildfire risk due to strong winds.

Why it matters

This weather pattern shift comes after weeks of unusually warm temperatures across the West, leaving many mountain ranges in a state of snow drought. The transition to a cooler, wetter pattern could have significant impacts on communities in the region, from potential flooding and snow-related disruptions to increased wildfire risk.

The details

According to the CPC, the developing weather pattern 'favors an increased risk of hazardous weather over much of the western half of the U.S.' This includes a high risk for heavy precipitation across coastal California, including the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego metropolitan areas on February 17, with a moderate risk continuing through February 18 and extending into southwestern Oregon. The CPC also warned of a 'moderate to high' risk of heavy snow for higher elevations of the West, including the southern Cascades, Klamath region, Sierra Nevada, and parts of northern Arizona. Additionally, the agency highlighted the potential for high winds across the Four Corners and High Plains, which could contribute to an elevated wildfire risk.

  • The CPC's forecast map shows the highest odds of above-normal precipitation across California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Arizona from February 17-23.
  • The CPC said a 'winter storm also cannot be ruled out across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, although this is more uncertain.'

The players

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The federal agency responsible for issuing weather forecasts and warnings, including the analysis of the developing weather pattern shift across the western U.S.

NWS Los Angeles

The local NWS office serving the Los Angeles metropolitan area, which has stated that southwest California is 'almost certain' to see rain between February 14 and 19.

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What they’re saying

“A high risk for heavy precipitation is highlighted across coastal California, including the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego metropolitan areas for Feb. 17, with a moderate risk continuing through Feb. 18 and extending into southwestern Oregon.”

— CPC

“Following above-normal temperatures across the West during late January and early February, a transition to much cooler temperatures is forecast for Feb. 13-19. Below-normal temperatures are favored across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.”

— CPC

What’s next

Local forecast updates are issued by the NWS regularly via its website and associated social media channels, providing more details on the developing weather patterns and potential impacts in specific regions.

The takeaway

This weather pattern shift highlights the ongoing challenges communities in the western U.S. face in adapting to the effects of climate change, including increased variability and extremes in precipitation and temperature. Proactive planning and preparedness will be crucial for mitigating the potential impacts of these hazardous weather events.