Reds' Playoff Odds Raise Eyebrows

FanGraphs projections have Cincinnati missing postseason despite offseason moves

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

FanGraphs has released its latest MLB projections, and the Cincinnati Reds' playoff odds are surprisingly low. Despite an 83-win season in 2025 and several offseason additions, the Reds are projected to have just a 19.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 9.2% chance of winning the NL Central division. Their World Series odds sit at just 0.5%.

Why it matters

The Reds were expected to be a contender in the NL Central after a strong 2025 campaign and an active offseason. These projections suggest the team may struggle to reach the postseason, which would be a disappointment for a franchise looking to build on its recent success.

The details

The Reds' projected win total of 78.5 seems low given their pitching staff, led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, and the additions of Eugenio Suarez, Dane Myers, and JJ Bleday. The team also brought back closer Emilio Pagan and added relievers like Pierce Johnson, Brock Burke, and Caleb Ferguson to bolster the bullpen.

  • The Reds finished the 2025 season with an 83-79 record.
  • FanGraphs released its latest MLB projections on February 8, 2026.

The players

Terry Francona

The manager of the Cincinnati Reds.

Hunter Greene

A starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds.

Andrew Abbott

A starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds.

Emilio Pagan

The closer for the Cincinnati Reds.

Eugenio Suarez

A slugger who signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What’s next

The Reds will look to prove the projections wrong when the 2026 season begins.

The takeaway

The Reds' low projected playoff odds are surprising given their strong 2025 season and offseason moves, raising questions about whether the team can live up to expectations and return to the postseason.