Study: Pandemic Disruptions Worsened Cancer Survival Rates

Research finds one-year survival rates declined for cancer patients diagnosed in 2020-2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Published on Feb. 5, 2026

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A new federally funded study published in JAMA Oncology suggests that disruptions to cancer diagnosis and treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic led to worse short-term survival rates for cancer patients. The study found one-year survival rates declined for those diagnosed with cancer in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2015-2019, across a range of cancer types and stages.

Why it matters

The findings highlight the significant impact the pandemic had on cancer care and outcomes, beyond the direct effects of COVID-19 itself. Disruptions to cancer screenings, diagnosis, and treatment access likely contributed to the worsened survival rates seen in the study. Understanding the full scope of the pandemic's effects on cancer care is crucial to mitigating future impacts and ensuring timely, equitable access to cancer services.

The details

Researchers analyzed national cancer registry data and found that one-year survival rates were lower for both early-stage and late-stage cancer diagnoses made in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2015-2019. The declines were most pronounced for colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancers. Overall, the study estimated about 17,400 more cancer deaths occurred than would have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends.

  • The study analyzed cancer diagnoses and survival data from 2015-2021.
  • The findings were published on February 5, 2026.

The players

Todd Burus

The lead author of the study and a medical data analysis specialist at the University of Kentucky.

Recinda Sherman

A researcher who worked on a previous paper that found overall cancer death rates continued declining during the pandemic, and applauded the new study for documenting the pandemic's impact on cause-specific survival.

Hyuna Sung

A senior principal scientist and cancer epidemiologist at the American Cancer Society who commented on the potential for transient declines in survival to recover over the long term.

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What they’re saying

“But disruptions to the health care system were probably a key contributor.”

— Todd Burus (JAMA Oncology)

“As this study is the first to document pandemic-related, cause-specific survival, I think it is important. The more we understand about the impact of COVID-19, the better we will be able to prepare for the next one.”

— Recinda Sherman, Researcher, North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (JAMA Oncology)

“Transient declines in survival that quickly recover may have little impact on long-term mortality trends.”

— Hyuna Sung, Senior Principal Scientist and Cancer Epidemiologist, American Cancer Society (JAMA Oncology)

What’s next

Further research will be needed to determine if the pandemic's impact on cancer survival rates was lasting or if outcomes have since recovered.

The takeaway

This study underscores the significant collateral damage the COVID-19 pandemic inflicted on cancer care, highlighting the need to strengthen health systems and ensure timely, equitable access to cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment even in times of crisis.