Nearly Half of Americans Projected to Be Obese by 2035

New study finds obesity rates rising sharply, with significant racial and gender disparities

Jan. 28, 2026 at 2:23pm

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A new study published in JAMA by researchers at the University of Washington in Seattle projects that by 2035, nearly 50% of American adults, about 126 million individuals, will be living with obesity. The study found that obesity rates have more than doubled since 1990, when the figure was just 19.3%. The projections show significant disparities across states, ages, and racial and ethnic groups, with the sharpest rises expected in Midwestern and Southern states.

Why it matters

The rising obesity rates highlighted in this study have major public health implications, as obesity is linked to a range of chronic health conditions like heart disease, diabetes, and certain types of cancer. The disproportionate impact on communities of color and low-income populations also underscores the need to address the systemic inequalities that contribute to these disparities.

The details

The study draws on data from more than 11 million participants via the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, as well as the independent Gallup Daily Survey. It projects that by 2035, 60% (11.5 million adults) of Black women and 54% (14.5 million) of Latino women will suffer from obesity, compared with 47% (36.5 million) of white women. Similarly, 48% (13.2 million) of Latino men will suffer from the disease compared with 45% (34.4 million) of white men and 43% (7.61 million) of Black men.

  • The study was published on January 28, 2026.
  • The projections cover the time period from 1990 to 2035.

The players

University of Washington

The institution where the researchers who conducted the study are based.

Dr. Amanda Velazquez

Director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital, who provided commentary on the study's findings and their implications for California.

Dr. Harold Church

A public health expert who discussed policy measures that have helped keep obesity rates in California lower than the national average, and what future efforts should prioritize.

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What they’re saying

“These numbers are not surprising, given the systemic inequalities that exist in many California cities.”

— Dr. Amanda Velazquez, Director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital (Los Angeles Times)

“To take that away is devastating.”

— Dr. Amanda Velazquez, Director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital (Los Angeles Times)

“There are statewide and local policies that influence food, nutrition and social determinants of health for individuals.”

— Dr. Harold Church, Public health expert (Los Angeles Times)

What’s next

Researchers and public health officials will continue to monitor obesity rates and the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at addressing this growing public health challenge.

The takeaway

This study underscores the urgent need to address the systemic inequalities and social determinants of health that contribute to the disproportionate impact of obesity on communities of color and low-income populations. Continued investment in evidence-based policies and programs that promote healthy eating, active lifestyles, and access to quality healthcare will be crucial to reversing these troubling trends.