Violent Crime Plunges Across US Cities in Historic Decline

Experts say the sharp drop in homicides, robberies, and assaults marks the largest decrease on record.

Published on Feb. 18, 2026

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Violent crime fell dramatically in 2025, with experts expecting it to be the year with the sharpest drop in homicides in recorded history. The decline follows a trend that began in 2022, after the COVID-19 pandemic saw a record-breaking spike in homicides. Data from major city reports shows homicides down 19.3%, rapes down 8.8%, robberies down 19.8%, and aggravated assaults down 9.7% from 2024 to 2025.

Why it matters

The nationwide decline in violent crime across major US cities is a significant development, with experts citing the post-pandemic recovery and federal funding as potential drivers. The trend raises questions about the factors behind the historic drop, including the role of law enforcement policies, community programs, and the broader social and economic landscape.

The details

According to the reports, the drop in violent crime was seen across seven of the eight major crime categories tracked by the FBI. Experts say the consistency of the decline across cities and over time suggests broader societal factors at play, rather than any single local program or policy. While some credit the Trump administration's tough-on-crime approach, others point to the American Rescue Plan Act funding that helped communities recover from pandemic-related losses.

  • The decline in violent crime began in 2022, after a record-breaking spike during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • In 2025, homicides dropped by 19.3%, rapes by 8.8%, robberies by 19.8%, and aggravated assaults by 9.7% compared to 2024.

The players

John Roman

Director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago, who analyzed the crime data and trends.

Kash Patel

FBI Director, who credited the Trump administration's policies for the historic drop in homicides.

Emily Owens

Professor of criminology and economics at the University of California, Irvine, who analyzed the nationwide consistency of the homicide decline.

Abigail Jackson

White House spokesperson, who disputed the suggestion that the American Rescue Plan Act funding contributed to the crime drop.

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What they’re saying

“This is a unique and historic decline in crime and violence in the U.S.”

— John Roman, Director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago (The Hill)

“Nearly 200% more arrests. Violent gangs crushed. Fugitives hunted down. Media gymnastics can't hide the reality that this administration brought law and order back, and Americans are safer because of it.”

— Kash Patel, FBI Director (X (social platform)

“The consistency of the homicide decline, both across cities and over time, makes me inclined to think this has to do with larger social movements, temporarily disrupted by COVID-19 when the world turned upside down, than with any one particular thing one particular city might be doing.”

— Emily Owens, Professor of criminology and economics at the University of California, Irvine (The Hill)

What’s next

The FBI is expected to publish its official crime statistics for 2025 in the coming months, which will provide further insight into the nationwide trends.

The takeaway

The historic drop in violent crime across major US cities is a complex phenomenon, with experts citing a range of potential factors, from pandemic recovery to federal funding and broader social shifts. The consistency of the decline suggests a need for deeper analysis to understand the underlying drivers and implications for public safety and criminal justice policy.