Study Finds Warming World Increases Days When Weather Is Prone to Fires

The number of days with hot, dry, and windy conditions ideal for wildfires has nearly tripled globally in the past 45 years.

Published on Feb. 23, 2026

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A new study has found that the number of days with weather conditions prone to sparking extreme wildfires has increased dramatically across the globe in recent decades, with more than half of the increase attributed to human-caused climate change. The researchers found the number of synchronous fire weather days - when multiple regions have the right conditions for fires - has nearly tripled since 1979, raising concerns about strained firefighting resources.

Why it matters

As the world warms, more places are becoming prone to dangerous fire weather at the same time, making it increasingly difficult for countries to have enough resources to battle all the blazes. The overlapping fire seasons also mean neighboring regions are less likely to be able to share firefighting support.

The details

The study found the number of days per year with hot, dry, and windy conditions ideal for sparking wildfires increased from an average of 22 globally in 1979-1994 to more than 60 in 2023-2024. More than 60% of this increase was attributed to human-caused climate change. The trend was especially pronounced in the Americas, with the continental U.S. seeing an increase from 7.7 such days per year in 1979-1988 to 38 days per year in the last decade. South America's southern regions saw an even more dramatic rise, from 5.5 days per year to 70.6 days per year, including 118 days in 2023.

  • In 1979 and for the next 15 years, the world averaged 22 synchronous fire weather days a year.
  • In 2023 and 2024, the number of synchronous fire weather days per year increased to more than 60.
  • In the continental U.S., the average number of synchronous fire weather days per year increased from 7.7 in 1979-1988 to 38 in the last decade.
  • In South America's southern regions, the average number of synchronous fire weather days per year increased from 5.5 in 1979-1988 to 70.6 in the last decade, including 118 days in 2023.

The players

John Abatzoglou

A fire scientist at the University of California, Merced and co-author of the study.

Cong Yin

A fire researcher at the University of California, Merced and lead author of the study.

Mike Flannigan

A fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University in Canada who was not part of the study.

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What they’re saying

“These sorts of changes that we have seen increase the likelihood in a lot of areas that there will be fires that are going to be very challenging to suppress.”

— John Abatzoglou, fire scientist

“It increases the likelihood of widespread fire outbreaks, but the weather is one dimension.”

— Cong Yin, fire researcher

“This study is important because extreme fire weather is the primary — but not only — factor in increasing fire impacts across the globe, and it's also important because regions that used to have fire seasons at different times and could share resources are now overlapping.”

— Mike Flannigan, fire scientist

What’s next

The study did not examine specific future steps, but the findings suggest the need for increased coordination and resource-sharing among regions facing overlapping fire seasons due to climate change.

The takeaway

This study underscores how climate change is dramatically increasing the risk of extreme wildfires around the world, with more places facing dangerous fire weather conditions simultaneously. As fire seasons overlap, countries will likely struggle to marshal enough firefighting resources, highlighting the urgent need for global cooperation and adaptation strategies to address this growing threat.