Ex-FBI Agent Suggests Moon Visibility Could Explain Differences in Nancy Guthrie Surveillance Footage

Jennifer Coffindaffer believes the moon's phases may account for lighting variations in images of a masked suspect at the missing woman's home.

Mar. 17, 2026 at 7:56am

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Former FBI agent Jennifer Coffindaffer has proposed that differences in the lighting and appearance of a masked suspect in surveillance footage related to the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie could be explained by the moon's visibility on the dates the footage was captured. Coffindaffer noted that the FBI has reportedly requested security camera footage from Guthrie's neighbors on January 11 and January 24, when the moon was in a waning or waxing crescent phase, compared to the full moon on February 1 when other footage was taken.

Why it matters

The disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Today show co-host Savannah Guthrie, has garnered national attention. Authorities have expressed concern for Guthrie's health, as she requires daily medication, and the release of surveillance footage has raised questions about the timeline and details of the case.

The details

The FBI released video on February 10 showing a masked man on Guthrie's porch on the night she disappeared. Reports later indicated the same masked man had been spotted at Guthrie's home on an earlier date. Coffindaffer suggested the differences in the suspect's appearance, such as whether he was wearing a backpack, could be due to the varying moonlight levels on the dates the footage was captured.

  • On January 11, the moon was a waning crescent (1% to 49% illumination).
  • On January 24, the moon was a waxing crescent (1% to 49% illumination).
  • On February 1, the moon was full (100% moonlight).

The players

Jennifer Coffindaffer

A former FBI agent who has suggested the moon's visibility could explain differences in the lighting and appearance of a masked suspect in surveillance footage related to the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie.

Nancy Guthrie

The missing mother of Today show co-host Savannah Guthrie, who was last seen at her home in Tucson, Arizona on January 31 and is believed to have been kidnapped.

Savannah Guthrie

The co-host of the Today show and daughter of the missing Nancy Guthrie.

Pima County Sheriff's Department

The law enforcement agency investigating Nancy Guthrie's disappearance, which has acknowledged differences in the masked suspect's clothing in various images but stated that the dates and times of the footage are unknown.

FBI

The federal law enforcement agency that released the surveillance footage showing a masked man at Nancy Guthrie's home on the night she disappeared, and has reportedly requested additional footage from her neighbors.

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What they’re saying

“A neighbor says the FBI asked her for video footage on 1/11 and 1/24 and reviewed it there. 1/11 was a waning crescent moon (1% -49% illumination), 1/24 was a waxing crescent (1% to 49%) and 2/1 was a full moon (100% moonlight) Could this explain lighting differences in the background in these 2 photos?”

— Jennifer Coffindaffer, Former FBI Agent (X)

What’s next

The Pima County Sheriff's Department has stated that the dates and times associated with the various surveillance images are unknown, so further investigation will be needed to determine if the moon's phases can definitively explain the differences in the footage.

The takeaway

This case highlights the importance of forensic analysis and considering all potential factors, such as environmental conditions, when examining evidence in a complex missing persons investigation. Coffindaffer's theory about the moon's influence on the lighting in the surveillance footage demonstrates the value of an experienced investigator's perspective in uncovering new leads.