New Math Model Aims to Predict and Manage Eczema Flare-Ups

Researchers say a nonlinear dynamics approach could help doctors customize treatment plans for patients.

Mar. 20, 2026 at 7:00pm

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Eczema flare-ups can feel random and hard to control, but new research suggests there may be a way to better predict and manage them. Scientists say something from a complex field of mathematics called nonlinear dynamics could help explain why symptoms suddenly worsen and how much treatment a person may need. Researchers created a model that looked at how the body moves between active flare-ups and periods of remission, finding that treatment works differently depending on which state you're in.

Why it matters

Many chronic diseases, including eczema, don't follow simple patterns, with symptoms staying quiet for long periods and then flaring up without warning. Researchers say this is because the body behaves like a "nonlinear system," in which small changes can lead to bigger, "butterfly effects." Understanding this could help doctors better customize treatment plans for patients.

The details

The study, published in the journal Chaos, looked at atopic dermatitis, more commonly known as eczema, which causes itchy, inflamed skin. Researchers found that during a flare-up, the amount of medication needed is far more predictable, increasing based on factors like how easily the skin lets in irritants and how the immune system responds. But once symptoms improve, things become less predictable, as even small changes in the body can make it harder to keep eczema under control.

  • The study was published on March 17, 2026.

The players

Yoseb Kang

A researcher at Pusan National University in Korea and the lead author of the study.

Arizona State University

Kang's research partner on the study.

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What they’re saying

“These applications illustrate a broader principle: Many chronic diseases can be interpreted as nonlinear dynamical systems operating near critical thresholds, where small physiological changes may lead to qualitatively different outcomes.”

— Yoseb Kang, Researcher

“Instead of only describing disease evolution, we aimed to determine the minimal intervention required to deliberately move the system from a chronic state into remission and then maintain stability.”

— Yoseb Kang, Researcher

“This framework may help explain why some patients require strong early intervention and why maintaining remission can sometimes demand sustained effort even after visible improvement.”

— Yoseb Kang, Researcher

What’s next

Researchers said their model could help doctors better customize treatment plans to each patient, adjusting treatment based on a person's skin condition and immune response.

The takeaway

Understanding eczema as a nonlinear system could lead to more effective and personalized treatment approaches, helping patients better manage this chronic and unpredictable skin condition.