UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira Predictions

Experts' picks and odds for the main card of the UFC Fight Night event on Paramount+

Feb. 6, 2026 at 9:31am

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UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira on Saturday, with the main card streaming live on Paramount+. The main event features a bantamweight bout between No. 9 Mario Bautista and No. 11 Vinicius Oliveira. Bautista is the -170 favorite, while Oliveira is the +142 underdog. The co-main event is a flyweight contest between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi, with Horiguchi the -355 favorite. The model has analyzed the fights and revealed its top betting picks and best bets for the main card.

Why it matters

This UFC Fight Night event features several ranked contenders looking to move up in their respective divisions. The main event between Bautista and Oliveira is a key bantamweight matchup, while the co-main event between Albazi and Horiguchi could have title implications in the flyweight division. The model's predictions and betting advice provide valuable insights for fans looking to wager on the fights.

The details

Bautista, a Nevada native fighting out of Scottsdale, Ariz., has won eight of his last nine fights, including a victory over UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo. His lone loss during that stretch came against Umar Nurmagomedov in October 2025. Oliveira, a Brazilian knockout specialist, has won four straight fights in the UFC, earning two Fight of the Night and one Performance of the Night bonuses. The model believes this fight is closer than the odds suggest, with Oliveira having a legitimate chance to pull off the upset.

  • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira takes place on Saturday, February 6, 2026.
  • The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas.

The players

Mario Bautista

A 32-year-old bantamweight fighter from Nevada, fighting out of Scottsdale, Ariz. He has a 16-3 professional record and is currently ranked No. 9 in the division.

Vinicius Oliveira

A 30-year-old Brazilian bantamweight fighter. He has a 23-3 professional record and is currently ranked No. 11 in the division. Oliveira is known for his knockout power, with 16 of his 23 wins coming via KO.

Amir Albazi

A flyweight fighter competing in the co-main event against Kyoji Horiguchi.

Kyoji Horiguchi

A flyweight fighter competing in the co-main event against Amir Albazi. Horiguchi is currently ranked No. 8 in the division and is the -355 favorite.

Mike McClure

A proven computer model that has simulated each fight 10,000 times and revealed its top UFC picks and betting advice.

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What they’re saying

“Jacoby's experience is reflected in the betting line, but Walker's metrics suggest this fight is much closer than the odds imply. Walker lands with higher accuracy, absorbs less damage, and carries legitimate knockout upside. The SportsLine model projects Jacoby to win just 53.2% of the time, making the underdog price on Walker particularly attractive given his finishing potential.”

— Mike McClure, SportsLine expert

What’s next

The model has also revealed its picks and predictions for the other main card fights, including a prediction that underdog Julius Walker (+154) has an edge over Dustin Jacoby (-185). Fans can visit SportsLine to see the model's full UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira picks and analysis.

The takeaway

This UFC Fight Night event features several intriguing matchups between ranked contenders looking to climb the ladder in their respective divisions. The model's advanced simulations and betting advice provide valuable insights for fans looking to wager on the fights, highlighting potential upsets and value plays beyond the main event.