Growth rate slowed in US metro areas in 2025, with steepest drops along the southern border

Declines in immigrants and hurricane impacts led to population losses in some regions

Mar. 26, 2026 at 9:18am

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Growth rates in U.S. metro areas dropped the steepest in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border last year because of declines in immigrants, while counties along Florida's Gulf Coast lost residents due to a series of hurricanes, according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Why it matters

The figures reflect the initial months of President Donald Trump's second term and the beginning of his administration's immigration crackdown. With an aging America and birth rates declining, immigration has become an important source of growth in many communities, so changes in migration patterns can have significant impacts on local populations.

The details

The average growth rate for metro areas fell from 1.1% in 2024 to 0.6% in 2025. Three metro areas along the U.S-Mexico border - Laredo, Texas, Yuma, Arizona, and El Centro, California - had the steepest drops in population growth rates. In Florida, Pinellas County lost almost 12,000 residents, the second most in the U.S., due to the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The New York metro area slid from growing the most in 2024 to ranking 13th in 2025 because of the drop in immigrants.

  • The estimates cover the one-year period through July 2025.
  • Hurricanes Helene and Milton tore through Gulf Coast counties in Florida in fall 2024.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States during the time period covered by the population estimates.

Kenneth Johnson

A senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.

Helen You

The interim director of the Texas Demographic Center.

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What they’re saying

“With so little natural increase, migration determines whether an area grows or declines, particularly in the big metro cores that have continuous domestic out-migration and are dependent on immigration.”

— Kenneth Johnson, Senior Demographer, University of New Hampshire

“That pattern suggests a sharper rise-and-fall effect in border regions, where international migration plays a more central role in year-to-year population change.”

— Helen You, Interim Director, Texas Demographic Center

What’s next

The Census Bureau will release more detailed population estimates for counties and metro areas later this year.

The takeaway

The slowdown in immigration and hurricane impacts on Florida's Gulf Coast highlight how changes in migration patterns can significantly affect population growth in different regions of the U.S., with implications for local economies, infrastructure, and political representation.