Lawmakers Call for Investigations Into Suspicious Polymarket Trades Ahead of Major Geopolitical Events

Concerns raised over potential insider trading on prediction market platform as anonymous traders make well-timed bets.

Apr. 11, 2026 at 12:04am

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A dynamic, abstract painting of overlapping, fragmented geometric shapes in bold, contrasting colors, conceptually representing the volatility and potential for misuse in prediction markets.The rapid, well-timed bets on Polymarket raise concerns about potential insider trading and exploitation of prediction markets.Phoenix Today

Calls are increasing in Congress for investigations into the prediction market platform Polymarket after instances where groups of anonymous traders made strategic, well-timed bets on major geopolitical events just hours before they occurred. Lawmakers are concerned these trades may have involved insider information, raising questions about the integrity of these prediction markets.

Why it matters

Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to bet on a wide range of events, from the weather to political outcomes. However, the ability of anonymous traders to make highly profitable, prescient bets on events like the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and the Venezuela political crisis has sparked accusations that these platforms are vulnerable to insider trading and the exploitation of non-public information. This threatens to undermine public trust in these markets and raises national security concerns if adversaries can anticipate U.S. moves.

The details

In the latest case, at least 50 brand new Polymarket accounts placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Trump announced it on social media. Similar well-timed bets have occurred around other major geopolitical events, such as the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the start of the Iran war. Researchers have estimated that $143 million in profits have been made on Polymarket by individuals who potentially had insider information on events ranging from celebrity news to the Nobel Peace Prize.

  • On Wednesday, The Associated Press reported the Polymarket bets on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire were placed in the hours, even minutes, before President Trump's announcement.
  • In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit by betting that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be out of office, hours before Maduro was captured.
  • In the hours before the start of the Iran war, another account made roughly $550,000 in a series of trades effectively betting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from office.

The players

Rep. Ritchie Torres

A Democratic member of the House Financial Services Committee and the subcommittee on digital assets and financial technology, who sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission demanding an investigation into the well-timed Polymarket trades.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal

A Democratic senator from Connecticut who sent a letter to Polymarket demanding the company explain why it continues to allow trades on war and violence, and whether it is making efforts to keep insiders from trading on the platform.

Rep. Blake Moore

A Republican member of Congress who criticized prediction markets and called for bans on these types of bets, saying "We don't want to imagine a world where America's adversaries use prediction markets to anticipate our next move."

Polymarket

A prediction market platform that allows users to bet on a wide range of events, from the weather to political outcomes. The company is seeking to reenter the U.S. market after being banned in 2022.

Kalshi

A competing prediction market platform that is already regulated in the U.S. and has a goal of becoming the nation's dominant prediction market, including a focus on sports betting.

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What they’re saying

“This pattern raises serious concerns that certain market participants may have had access to material nonpublic information regarding a market-moving geopolitical event.”

— Rep. Ritchie Torres, U.S. Representative

“What is the statistical likelihood that of anyone other than an insider trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement? There are two answers: God, or an insider trader. And something tells me that God it not placing bets around Donald Trump's posts on Truth Social.”

— Rep. Ritchie Torres, U.S. Representative

“Polymarket has become an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history, and by extension a potential honeypot for foreign intelligence services watching for those same suspicious bets and wagers.”

— Sen. Richard Blumenthal, U.S. Senator

“We don't want to imagine a world where America's adversaries use prediction markets to anticipate our next move.”

— Rep. Blake Moore, U.S. Representative

What’s next

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to review and investigate the well-timed Polymarket trades, while Congress continues to scrutinize the use of prediction markets and the potential for insider trading and national security risks.

The takeaway

The suspicious trading activity on Polymarket has raised serious concerns about the integrity and regulation of prediction markets, which could be vulnerable to exploitation by insiders and foreign adversaries. Lawmakers are now demanding answers and increased oversight to ensure these platforms are not being used to undermine national interests.