Showers and thunderstorms expected across Arizona this evening

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A storm system off the Baja California coast is tracking northeast and bringing scattered rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and mountain snow to Arizona today. Showers will develop in southern Arizona this morning and move northward through the afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms in the mix as well. Rainfall totals through Tuesday will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the Valley, with locally higher amounts possible near thunderstorms and in higher terrain. Once the storm moves out on Tuesday, high pressure builds over Arizona and the West for the rest of the week, leading to a dramatic warm-up with highs running 10 to 20 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

Why it matters

This storm system is bringing much-needed moisture to Arizona, which has seen declining rainfall averages in recent decades. However, the unsettled weather could also lead to potential impacts like flash flooding, small hail, and gusty winds from any stronger thunderstorms.

The details

The slow-moving storm system off the Baja California coast is tracking northeast and pushing moisture across Arizona. Showers will develop in southern Arizona this morning and move northward through the afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms also in the mix. Some of the thunderstorms could produce strong gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the Valley, with locally higher amounts possible near thunderstorms and in higher terrain.

• Showers will develop in southern Arizona this morning and move northward through the afternoon and evening.
• Thunderstorms are also expected, with some producing strong gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
• Rainfall totals through Tuesday will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the Valley, with locally higher amounts possible.

What’s next

Once the storm moves out on Tuesday, high pressure builds over Arizona and the West for the rest of the week, leading to a dramatic warm-up with highs running 10 to 20 degrees above normal by the end of the week.