Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Arrive Today Across Arizona

A cut-off low-pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, rain, and isolated thunderstorms to the region.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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A cut-off low-pressure system is moving from the Baja Peninsula toward Arizona, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state, including the Phoenix metro area, starting this afternoon and continuing overnight. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Temperatures will be cooler today and Tuesday before a big warm-up later this week, with the potential for record-breaking heat by the weekend.

Why it matters

This storm system will provide much-needed rainfall across Arizona, which has been dealing with an ongoing drought. However, the thunderstorms could also bring the risk of flash flooding and other severe weather impacts that residents need to be prepared for.

The details

The rain and thunderstorm chances will start in southwestern Arizona this afternoon and spread to the south-central deserts, including the Phoenix Valley, by the evening and overnight hours. Valley rain chances are near 30-40%, with the best chances for scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms after 4 p.m. today. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

  • Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to start up this afternoon in Southwestern Arizona.
  • The rain and storms will spread to the South Central deserts, including the Phoenix Valley, by the evening and overnight hours.
  • Rain and storms are possible overnight as well, with a slight chance for a few lingering showers Tuesday morning.
  • Cooler temperatures are expected today and Tuesday, with highs only reaching the upper 70s on Tuesday.
  • A big warm-up is on tap later this week, with low 90s likely on Thursday and the potential for record-breaking heat on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

The players

Arizona

The state that will be impacted by the incoming storm system, including the Phoenix metro area.

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What’s next

Weather models are trending toward even hotter temperatures next week, with the potential for Arizona's first triple-digit heat of the year.

The takeaway

This storm system will provide much-needed rainfall across Arizona, but residents should also be prepared for the potential risks associated with thunderstorms, such as flash flooding and severe weather. The cooler temperatures will be short-lived, as a significant warm-up is expected later this week, with the possibility of record-breaking heat by the weekend.