Phoenix Heatwave Raises Summer Concerns

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Phoenix is experiencing an unusual February heatwave, with temperatures reaching the 90s. This has many residents wondering if this is a sign of a particularly scorching summer to come. However, a review of past temperature records reveals no clear correlation between early heat and the overall summer heat profile in the region.

Why it matters

While the early warmth is noteworthy, meteorologists focus on several key indicators to predict summer heat potential, including winter soil moisture, Pacific Ocean patterns, and the development of high-pressure systems. Understanding these complex factors can help provide a more accurate forecast for the upcoming summer.

The details

A review of Phoenix temperature records shows that prior to 2026, the city saw 90-degree days in February on five separate occasions, and the subsequent summers varied dramatically, ranging from the 114th warmest to the 4th warmest on record. This challenges the intuitive link between early heat and long-term summer conditions. Meteorologists note that factors like winter soil moisture, El Niño and La Niña patterns, and high-pressure ridges are more important in predicting summer heat potential.

• Phoenix is experiencing 90-degree temperatures in February 2026.

What’s next

Long-range models suggest a shift towards lower pressure and more seasonal – or even slightly below-average – temperatures between March 5 and March 8, offering a temporary respite from the unusual February heat.