Early 90s in Phoenix Raise Summer Heat Concerns

Residents wonder if February 90-degree days signal a long, brutal summer ahead.

Published on Feb. 27, 2026

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Phoenix is experiencing unusually warm weather in February, with multiple days in the 90s forecast. This has many Valley residents wondering if this is a preview of an extremely hot summer to come. However, meteorologists say there is no clear correlation between early 90-degree days in February and how hot the following summer will be in Phoenix.

Why it matters

Early heat in Phoenix raises concerns about the potential for an extended and intense summer heat wave, which can be dangerous for residents and visitors. Understanding the factors that influence summer heat in the region is important for preparing the community.

The details

A review of Phoenix temperature records shows no clear link between 90-degree days in February and the severity of the following summer. Meteorologists look at broader indicators like winter soil moisture, Pacific Ocean patterns, and the development of high-pressure ridges to assess summer heat potential. This year, above-average topsoil moisture could lead to a temperate start to summer, but if that moisture burns off too soon, it could result in even warmer conditions later.

  • Multiple days in the 90s are forecast for Phoenix in February 2026.
  • Prior to 2026, Phoenix had reached 90 degrees in February in 5 separate years.

The players

Paulie

A Valley resident who believes the early 90s signal a long and brutal summer ahead.

Mark

A longtime Phoenix resident who says he can't remember temperatures like this so early in the year, calling it very unseasonal.

Steve

A resident who believes the early heat must mean an early start to triple digits.

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What they’re saying

“Unfortunately, I think it is going to be a warm summer… early and long.”

— Paulie

“It seems like the sooner it comes, the sooner it hits. Once you hit that first 90, the first 100 comes pretty soon after.”

— Steve

“That surprises me. I just assumed that when it's coming early, it's going to get here early and stay through the summer.”

— Steve

What’s next

Long-range models suggest a shift toward lower pressure and more seasonal — or even slightly below-average — temperatures between March 5 and March 8.

The takeaway

While early 90-degree days in Phoenix raise concerns about the potential for an intense summer heat wave, historical data shows no clear correlation between February heat and the severity of the following summer. Preparing for desert heat, regardless of the peak temperatures, is crucial for the health and safety of residents and visitors.