Colorado River Crisis Fails to Force Deal From States

Dire projections and historically low snowpack have not yet pushed the seven states that share the Colorado River to come to an agreement on its future management.

Published on Feb. 20, 2026

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The Colorado River crisis is no longer part of some hypothetical future — it's here. Fueled by one of the worst snowpacks on record, forecasts show the nation's second-largest reservoir could fall below the minimum level needed to make hydropower as soon as July under the worst-case scenario. But the increasingly dire projections and growing gap between supply and demand haven't yet pushed the seven states that share the river to come to an agreement on its future management.

Why it matters

The need for a new management paradigm that adapts to a shrinking water supply has never been more urgent, as the Colorado River provides water to millions in the Southwest. However, the scale of the problem and hardened positions between the Upper Basin and Lower Basin states have made consensus difficult.

The details

Last week, state negotiators blew past a second federally set deadline to find a consensus plan on how to share shortages and manage Lake Powell and Lake Mead. They have been stuck at an impasse for two years. Some of the normal levers that have been pulled to force action in the past, such as directives and deadlines from the federal government, don't seem to be effective in the current situation. The federal government has presented five options for managing the river, but the states would need to agree on the innovative and collaborative actions outlined.

  • The current guidelines governing the river are set to expire at the end of 2023.
  • The states missed a February 14 deadline set by the federal government to present an agreement.
  • The states also missed an initial November 11 deadline set by the feds for the states to present the outline of an agreement.

The players

Becky Mitchell

Colorado's representative in the Colorado River negotiations.

Elizabeth Koebele

A professor of political science and associate director of the graduate program of hydrologic sciences at the University of Nevada, Reno.

Anne Castle

A former federal representative to the Upper Colorado River Commission and a Colorado River expert.

Kathryn Sorensen

A researcher and professor at Arizona State University's Kyl Center for Water Policy.

Doug Burgum

The U.S. Interior Secretary.

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What they’re saying

“We're being asked to solve a problem we didn't create with water we don't have.”

— Becky Mitchell, Colorado's representative

“There's a little bit less of this idea of a single or central federal leader in the negotiation process. And they're also still saying, 'Hey, states, please come up with your own option too.' I'm not really sure how credible threats are from the federal government when we're in this sort of context.”

— Elizabeth Koebele, Professor of political science and associate director of the graduate program of hydrologic sciences at the University of Nevada, Reno

“Our premise was that a crisis in terms of water supply and reservoir levels and snowpack and expected runoff can prompt creative compromise. But we have all those underlying conditions, and we don't have a compromise.”

— Anne Castle, Former federal representative to the Upper Colorado River Commission and Colorado River expert

What’s next

The federal government is accepting comments on the draft environmental impact statement for new Colorado River management guidelines until March 2.

The takeaway

The scale of the Colorado River crisis, with potentially a 4 million acre-foot shortage, has hardened positions between the Upper Basin and Lower Basin states, making consensus on a new management plan elusive despite dire projections and historically low snowpack. The lack of a credible federal threat or consequence for missing deadlines has also contributed to the stalemate, raising questions about how to break the impasse and adapt to the shrinking water supply.