Montana State Bobcats Favored at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Can the Bobcats' three-point attack overcome the Skydome altitude?

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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The Montana State Bobcats are laying 5.5 points on the road against the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks in a Big Sky Conference matchup. While the Bobcats have struggled on the road this season, the underlying efficiency numbers suggest they should be double-digit favorites based on the large gap between the two teams' ratings.

Why it matters

This game features a significant mismatch in the underlying analytics, with Montana State ranking much higher in adjusted net rating, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency compared to Northern Arizona. The market is giving the Bobcats less respect than the numbers suggest they deserve.

The details

Montana State ranks #128 nationally in adjusted net rating at +3.5, while Northern Arizona sits at #314 with a brutal -14.0 rating. The Bobcats have a 17.5-point efficiency advantage over the Lumberjacks. Montana State's adjusted offensive rating of 111.2 is 6.7 points better than Northern Arizona's 117.9 defensive rating, while the Bobcats' 107.7 defensive rating is 3.7 points better than the Lumberjacks' 104.0 offensive rating. The projected pace of 66.2 possessions per game is right in the sweet spot between the two teams' tempos.

  • Montana State won the first meeting between the teams this season, 77-68, in Bozeman.
  • The total has gone under in four of the last five meetings between Montana State and Northern Arizona, and under in 11 of the last 12 games played in Flagstaff.

The players

Davian Brown

Leads Montana State with 14.4 points per game.

Patrick McMahon

Adds 14.2 points per game for the Bobcats.

Jed Miller

Contributes 12.9 points per game for Montana State.

Zack Davidson

Leads Northern Arizona with 16.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.

Ryan Abelman

Adds 12.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game for the Lumberjacks.

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What they’re saying

“The model projects Montana State winning by 3.6 points with home court adjustment, which means the market is giving you nearly two points of value on the Bobcats at -5.5. That's significant.”

— Bryan Bash, Expert Analyst (predictem.com)

What’s next

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The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.