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Late January duck estimate falls short of 2025's count
Drought conditions lead to lower waterfowl numbers across Arkansas
Published on Feb. 8, 2026
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Arkansas Game and Fish Commission biologists conducted their final January aerial waterfowl survey, estimating 337,479 mallards and 694,286 total ducks in the Arkansas Delta, 25,542 ducks including 12,075 mallards in the Arkansas River Valley, and 19,365 ducks with 8,030 mallards in southwest Arkansas. The late-January Delta mallard population estimate was 121,205 mallards below the 2025 late-January estimate, and 343,221 mallards below the late-January long-term average, likely due to dry conditions and limited habitat.
Why it matters
The annual waterfowl surveys provide crucial data on duck and goose populations in Arkansas, which helps wildlife managers make informed decisions about hunting seasons and conservation efforts. The significant drop in duck numbers compared to previous years highlights the impact of the ongoing drought on waterfowl habitat and migration patterns in the state.
The details
Biologists were able to conduct the survey flights before a winter storm hit the state on January 23. The data showed mallards made up only 49% of the total duck estimate in the Delta, compared to the typical 55%. Most of the mallards were concentrated in four survey zones in the northern and central parts of the Delta. In the Arkansas River Valley, mallard estimates were 68% below the long-term average, while total ducks were 54% below average. In southwest Arkansas, mallard counts were 4% below average and total ducks were 21% below.
- The final January aerial waterfowl survey was conducted in the last weeks of January 2026.
- The survey flights took place before a winter storm hit Arkansas on January 23.
The players
Arkansas Game and Fish Commission
The state agency responsible for managing Arkansas's wildlife and natural resources, including conducting annual waterfowl surveys.
Brett Leach
The AGFC's waterfowl program coordinator, who provided analysis and insights on the survey results.
What they’re saying
“This duck season was characterized by dry conditions, ranking from the third driest on record in northeast Arkansas to the 22nd driest in the southeast portion of the state. January continued to see dry conditions and was classified as in even further drought, with 99 percent of the state in moderate to exceptional drought.”
— Brett Leach, Waterfowl Program Coordinator, Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (ktlo.com)
What’s next
The AGFC will use the data from this final January survey, along with information from earlier surveys, to help inform decisions about the 2026-2027 waterfowl hunting season in Arkansas.
The takeaway
The significant decline in duck numbers across Arkansas, particularly in the Delta region, underscores the severe impact of the ongoing drought on waterfowl habitat and migration patterns in the state. Wildlife managers will need to carefully consider these survey results as they work to balance hunting opportunities with long-term conservation efforts.
