Stop overthinking these 3 first-round prospects

I'm not concerned about these first-round grades.

Apr. 2, 2026 at 11:21pm

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A fragmented, geometric painting depicting the chaotic energy and overlapping perspectives of the NFL draft, with players and the field reduced to sharp, angular shapes and vibrant colors.An abstract, cubist interpretation of the dynamic action and competition of the NFL draft process.Auburn Today

The NFL draft discourse often leads to overthinking prospects, but there are some players who have the right combination of film, production, and athleticism to be first-round locks. The author highlights three such prospects - Makai Lemon, Peter Woods, and Keldric Faulk - and explains why they should be considered safe bets to be selected in the first round despite any growing skepticism.

Why it matters

As the pre-draft process continues, there is pressure to uncover new information about prospects, even at the expense of older and more important information. This can lead to teams and analysts overthinking certain prospects who have already proven themselves through their film, stats, and athletic testing. Identifying these 'sure-thing' first-round talents is important for teams looking to make impactful picks in the early stages of the draft.

The details

The author highlights three prospects who fit this mold - Makai Lemon, a wide receiver from USC who had a breakout season; Peter Woods, a defensive tackle from Clemson who maintained his high level of play despite his team's struggles; and Keldric Faulk, an edge rusher from Auburn who may not have the flashiest stats but brings valuable size, strength, and versatility. Each of these players has the right combination of production, film, and athleticism to be considered safe first-round selections, despite any growing skepticism in the pre-draft process.

  • Lemon entered the year as a top-50 prospect whose film suggested an early-season rise was possible.
  • Lemon then lit the Big Ten ablaze, logging 79 catches for 1,156 yards and 11 scores in the 2025 season.
  • Woods remained an excellent run defender in 2025, even if his stats didn't live up to his superhuman 2024 campaign.
  • Faulk is coming off a two-sack season in 2025, but his impressive size, strength, and versatility make him a valuable early-down edge defender.

The players

Makai Lemon

A wide receiver from the University of Southern California who had a breakout season in 2025, logging 79 catches for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Peter Woods

A defensive tackle from Clemson University who maintained his high level of play in 2025 despite his team's struggles, remaining an excellent run defender with upside as a pass rusher.

Keldric Faulk

An edge rusher from Auburn University who may not have the flashiest stats, but brings valuable size, strength, and versatility as a run-defending, inside-outside edge defender.

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What they’re saying

“Lemon can very well follow in those footsteps, playing a bit bigger than his size and showing a preternatural ability to separate. I think he has the body control to make plays downfield, even without truly elite speed, and I'm not particularly concerned about his (approximately) 4.50-second 40-yard dash.”

— Anthony Licciardi, Author

“Woods remains an excellent run defender whose athleticism lends itself to upside as a pass rusher. His win and pressure rates remained promising, even if they didn't live up to his superhuman underclassmen performance.”

— Anthony Licciardi, Author

“Faulk isn't the safest bet for 10-sack seasons, but as a run-defending maestro with inside-outside versatility and room to improve as a pass rusher, he feels like the kind of talent that falls down the board and makes a good team significantly better.”

— Anthony Licciardi, Author

The takeaway

Despite the constant pressure to uncover new information about NFL draft prospects, sometimes the best approach is to trust the film, production, and athleticism that certain players have already demonstrated. Makai Lemon, Peter Woods, and Keldric Faulk are three such prospects who have the right combination of traits to be considered safe first-round selections, even as skepticism may grow around them in the pre-draft process.