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Lunardi: Set NCAA Tournament Eligibility Floor to Bring Back Cinderella
The blame for Cinderella's demise is misplaced, and the solution lies in adjusting tournament eligibility criteria.
Mar. 26, 2026 at 1:00pm
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Joe Lunardi argues that the decline of Cinderella teams in the NCAA Tournament is not due to the teams themselves, but rather the structure of college basketball that has trended towards power conference dominance. He suggests setting an eligibility floor for the tournament to ensure more spots go to deserving mid-major programs, which historically have performed better than power conference teams with losing conference records.
Why it matters
The lack of Cinderella teams in recent NCAA Tournaments has been a point of frustration for many fans, who enjoy the excitement and unpredictability they bring. Lunardi's proposal to adjust the tournament eligibility criteria could help restore the tournament's reputation for upsets and Cinderella stories, which are a big part of the event's appeal.
The details
Lunardi points out that the number of at-large bids for non-power conference teams has declined significantly in recent years, from 7 teams with an average seed of 8.1 in 2006 to just 7 teams with an average seed of 10.1 in the past two tournaments. This is largely due to conference realignment, which has increased the number of power conference schools from 72 to 79. Lunardi argues that the non-power conferences need to do a better job of positioning their best teams for at-large consideration, and that expanding the tournament field is likely the only way to get more mid-major teams in.
- It has been 20 years since George Mason became the first double-digit seed to reach the Final Four without the early-round home-court advantage its lone predecessor, LSU, benefited from in 1986.
- The NCAA introduced the NET rankings in 2018, whose quadrant system values opponent strength in a way that works to the advantage of power conference teams.
The players
Joe Lunardi
A data analyst and college basketball expert who has been a proponent of NCAA tournament expansion to counter the power conferences' dominance of selection and seeding.
George Mason
The first double-digit seed to reach the Final Four without the early-round home-court advantage its lone predecessor, LSU, benefited from in 1986.
LSU
The lone predecessor to George Mason as a double-digit seed to reach the Final Four, benefiting from early-round home-court advantage.
What they’re saying
“You can't have Cinderella at the Big Dance if there are fewer invitations to it. You can't make her ride there unduly harsh. And you can't make her dance with only big-uglies.”
— Joe Lunardi
What’s next
Lunardi suggests that the NCAA should set a tournament eligibility floor to ensure more spots go to deserving mid-major programs, which historically have performed better than power conference teams with losing conference records.
The takeaway
Restoring the presence of Cinderella teams in the NCAA Tournament requires addressing the structural factors that have led to power conference dominance, such as conference realignment and the NET rankings system. Lunardi's proposal to set an eligibility floor could help rebalance the field and bring back the unpredictability and excitement that Cinderella teams provide.
