Auburn Keeps NCAA Tournament Hopes Alive

Bracketologist Joe Lunardi sees path for Tigers to make the Big Dance without win over Tennessee

Mar. 12, 2026 at 1:52am

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Despite a 17-15 overall record and 7-11 conference mark, Auburn's NCAA Tournament hopes remain alive heading into the SEC Tournament. ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi says the Tigers could still make the field of 68 even without a win over Tennessee on Thursday, as long as certain mid-major conference tournaments go their way.

Why it matters

Auburn is on the NCAA Tournament bubble and needs to bolster its resume to secure an at-large bid. Lunardi's analysis provides a potential path forward for the Tigers, who are looking to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2019.

The details

Lunardi says Auburn needs Miami (OH) and Saint Louis, the No. 1 seeds in the MAC and Atlantic 10 tournaments respectively, to win their conference tournaments. If that happens, Lunardi believes Auburn could make the NCAA Tournament even without a win over Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. However, Lunardi warned that "bid thieves" - teams that steal at-large bids by winning their conference tournaments - could still impact Auburn's chances.

  • The SEC Tournament is currently underway, with Auburn set to face Tennessee on Thursday.
  • The MAC and Atlantic 10 Tournaments will take place later this week.

The players

Joe Lunardi

ESPN Bracketologist who provides NCAA Tournament projections and analysis.

Auburn Tigers

The men's basketball team at Auburn University, who are on the NCAA Tournament bubble with a 17-15 overall record.

Miami (OH) Redhawks

The No. 1 seed in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) Tournament.

Saint Louis Billikens

The No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.

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What they’re saying

“Auburn had a great day, and most of it did not happen in their own game. You mentioned the losses by Indiana and others. The bubble teams – we're having a week where no one wants to be the last team in this tournament. And being the last team on the board isn't a great spot on the Wednesday before selections, but it is when there may not be many bid thieves.”

— Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist

“But you're talking about the major conferences, Auburn needs to be rooting for Miami (OH) and Saint Louis once we get into those tournaments later in the week. That's where their fate is really going to lie. And if everything goes right for them, I'm saying it right now, they don't even have to win tomorrow.”

— Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist

What’s next

Auburn will face Tennessee in the SEC Tournament on Thursday, while the MAC and Atlantic 10 Tournaments will take place later this week. Lunardi says Auburn's fate could hinge on the results of those mid-major conference tournaments.

The takeaway

Despite a mediocre regular season, Auburn still has a path to the NCAA Tournament thanks to a weak bubble and the potential for mid-major conference tournament champions to steal at-large bids. The Tigers will be rooting hard for Miami (OH) and Saint Louis to win their respective conference tournaments this week.