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Akron Today
By the People, for the People
8 Most Likely March Madness Upsets in 2026 NCAA Tournament
Experts predict Cinderella stories and unlikely heroes to emerge in the 68-team event
Mar. 17, 2026 at 8:50am
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As millions fill out their 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets, identifying potential Cinderella teams and upset picks is a key challenge. This article highlights the eight most likely March Madness upsets in the first round, including underdogs like South Florida, VCU, Akron, and more taking down higher-seeded opponents.
Why it matters
The NCAA Tournament is known for its unpredictable nature, with smaller schools and lesser-known teams often pulling off shocking upsets over basketball powerhouses. Correctly predicting these Cinderella stories can make or break a tournament bracket, making this analysis of the most likely 2026 NCAA Tournament upsets essential for fans filling out their picks.
The details
The article breaks down eight potential first-round upsets, analyzing factors like injuries to key players, recent hot streaks, and stylistic matchups that could favor the underdog teams. For example, South Florida's up-tempo offense and standout forward Izaiyah Nelson could give Louisville trouble, while VCU's strong recent play makes them a threat to knock off North Carolina. Other highlighted upset picks include Texas over BYU, Hofstra over Alabama, Akron over Texas Tech, and more.
- The 2026 NCAA Tournament will take place in March and April 2026.
The players
Mikel Brown Jr.
A Louisville freshman point guard who has dealt with back issues this season, making his status for the NCAA Tournament unclear.
Izaiyah Nelson
A 6-10 forward for South Florida who was named the American Conference player of the year, averaging 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.
Caleb Wilson
A standout freshman forward for North Carolina who is sidelined for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on a broken thumb.
Richie Saunders
An 18-point-per-game scorer for BYU who is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Aden Holloway
Alabama's second-leading scorer who was recently removed from the team after being arrested and charged with two felony drug offenses.
What’s next
The 2026 NCAA Tournament will begin in mid-March, with the First Four games taking place on Tuesday, March 18 and Wednesday, March 19. The first round of the tournament will be played on Thursday, March 20 and Friday, March 21.
The takeaway
Predicting March Madness upsets is a crucial part of filling out a successful NCAA Tournament bracket. This analysis highlights several potential Cinderella stories and underdogs that could pull off shocking first-round victories, providing valuable insights for fans looking to gain an edge in their bracket challenges.
