Thawing Permafrost Could Accelerate Climate Change

New lab experiments show dramatic increase in gas permeability as Arctic soils warm, raising concerns about amplified greenhouse gas emissions.

Apr. 1, 2026 at 2:21pm

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A new study has found that as Arctic permafrost thaws due to climate change, the soils are becoming far more permeable, allowing significantly more carbon dioxide and methane to escape into the atmosphere and potentially accelerating global warming. The researchers used methods originally developed for the oil and gas industry to measure how gas flow through model permafrost samples changes as temperatures rise, and discovered a dramatic jump in permeability around the freezing point.

Why it matters

Permafrost contains an estimated 1,700 billion tons of carbon, roughly three times the amount currently in the atmosphere. If warming causes more of that carbon to be released as greenhouse gases, it could create a self-reinforcing cycle that further accelerates climate change. The study also raises concerns about increased radon release in northern communities as the soil structure changes.

The details

The researchers ran controlled experiments in a lab, gradually warming model permafrost samples from -18°C to +5°C and measuring gas release and permeability at each one-degree step. They found the most dramatic change in permeability happened close to the freezing point, in the range of -5°C to 1°C, as the permafrost started to soften, crack, and reorganize internally. This is significant because many Arctic regions hover near these temperatures for parts of the year, meaning small warming increments can produce outsized changes in how gases move through the soil.

  • The researchers gradually warmed the permafrost samples from -18°C to +5°C, measuring gas release at each one-degree step.
  • The most dramatic change in permeability happened in the range of -5°C to 1°C, as the permafrost started to soften, crack, and reorganize internally.

The players

Petrophysics Laboratory at the University of Leeds

The lab where the researchers conducted the controlled experiments on model permafrost samples.

Arctic permafrost

Frozen soil in the Arctic region that contains an estimated 1,700 billion tons of carbon, roughly three times the amount currently in the atmosphere.

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What’s next

The researchers are continuing to collect more data on permafrost behavior in the real world, as it can vary significantly based on different soil types, ice structures, and other factors.

The takeaway

This study highlights a concerning physical mechanism by which thawing permafrost could dramatically increase the flow of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that further accelerates climate change. It also raises new concerns about increased radon release in northern communities as the soil structure changes.