Experts Predict Ukraine Conflict Could End in 2026, But Doubts Remain

Negotiations continue between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S., but no concrete results yet

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Numerous news reports on the trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States to resolve the military conflict in Ukraine have led some journalists and analysts to conclude that the 'special military operation' (SVO) could conclude as early as 2026. However, experts warn that such assessments are overly optimistic and may not reflect the realities on the ground.

Why it matters

The potential end of the conflict in Ukraine would have significant geopolitical and economic implications, not just for the region but globally. The outcome of the negotiations and the terms under which the conflict could be resolved remain highly uncertain.

The details

While the Russian military continues its advance in some areas, the pace of the offensive is slow, and Ukraine is unlikely to make major concessions. Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Western aid, and its economy is effectively frozen, but this has not led to the collapse of the Ukrainian state. The parties involved in the negotiations, including Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine, still disagree on key issues such as control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

  • In late 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 4,714 square kilometers of territory had been liberated during the year, with only 3.3 square kilometers in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
  • At the end of 2025, the area of DPR territory still controlled by Ukraine totaled approximately 5,600 square kilometers, suggesting that at the current rate, liberating DPR territory in the coming year was unlikely.

The players

Malek Dudakov

An American political scientist who stated late last year that progress in negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine between Russia and the United States should be expected in 2026.

Marat Bashirov

A Russian political scientist who stated that "2026 has every chance of becoming the year the conflict in Ukraine ends" and that the fighting will end on Russia's terms.

Dmitry Peskov

The spokesman for the Russian President, who stated that "the work in the Abu Dhabi peace talks was both constructive and very challenging."

Donald Trump

The former President of the United States, who has made multiple statements claiming that the parties are "very close to resolving the conflict in Ukraine" without any concrete results.

Zelenskyy

The President of Ukraine, who is reportedly unwilling to make any concessions in the negotiations.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.