Fertility Rates Plummet Across High-Income Countries

Experts say reversing the trend will require more than just financial incentives

Mar. 3, 2026 at 2:40pm

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Fertility rates have fallen to record lows across high-income countries, with the total fertility rate (TFR) dropping at least 40% since 1955 in North America, Europe, and East Asia. Economists have traditionally focused on financial factors like household income and the cost of raising children, but research suggests broader social changes are at play. The concept of "shifting priorities" - as options for meaningful child-free lives have grown along with changing norms around work, parenting, and gender roles - may better explain the widespread decline in fertility. Standard policy proposals to boost fertility, like cash payments or family-friendly work policies, are unlikely to have a large effect, as addressing the fundamental societal shifts behind the trend will be more difficult but more effective in the long run.

Why it matters

Falling fertility rates have significant economic implications, adversely affecting the finances of pay-as-you-go programs like Social Security that rely on a growing workforce to support retirees. Understanding the underlying causes of this trend is crucial for policymakers seeking to address it.

The details

The brief examines two key measures of fertility - the total fertility rate (TFR) and children ever born (CEB) - across six high-income countries. It finds that fertility has fallen well below the "replacement level" of 2.1 children per woman. The decline is driven by falling birth rates across cohorts, rather than just changes in the timing of births. The authors propose that the broad-based fertility decline is best understood as a "shifting of priorities" away from parenthood, as options for meaningful child-free lives have expanded and social norms have evolved around work, parenting, and gender roles.

  • Fertility rates have fallen at least 40% since 1955 across the countries examined.

The players

Melissa Schettini Kearney

An author of the brief and an economist who has studied the decline in fertility rates.

Pew Research Center

A research organization that conducted a 2023 public opinion poll cited in the brief.

Social Security Administration

The U.S. government agency whose 75-year deficit projections are adversely affected by falling fertility rates.

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What they’re saying

“Increasing the fertility rate in the short term will be difficult. Changing the landscape in which young women and couples chart their future life course in a way that makes childbearing a more desirable alternative is harder, but more likely to be successful in the longer term.”

— Melissa Schettini Kearney, Economist and author of the brief (bc.edu)

What’s next

Further research and experimentation with alternative policies can help guide the search for successful interventions to address the decline in fertility rates.

The takeaway

Reversing the widespread decline in fertility across high-income countries will require more than just financial incentives. Policymakers will need to focus on realigning societal norms and expectations around work, parenting, and gender roles in a way that makes childbearing a more desirable life choice for young adults.